Modelisation de la dynamique spatio-temporelle de la pyrale du maÏs en presence de maÏs transgenique.

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Zhadanovskaya, Ekaterina (2007) Modelisation de la dynamique spatio-temporelle de la pyrale du maÏs en presence de maÏs transgenique. Doctorat Ecologie des populations et comunautés, USC (INRA) 1285 Ecologie des populations et communautés, AgroParistech 2007AGPT0013 p.158.

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Table des Matières

Introduction - 7

Chapter 1 General review of modelling methods applied to the problem of

resistance evolution to transgenic insecticidal crops in pest population - 21

1.1 Modelling population genetics - 21

1.1.1 Complex simulation models - 22

1.1.2 Fisher-Haldane-Wright model - 23

1.1.3 Demo-genetic models - 28

1.2 Modelling spatial population dynamics - 33

1.2.1 Patch models - 33

1.2.2 Cellular automata - 35

1.2.3 Reaction-diffusion models - 36

Thesis problems - 40

Chapter 2 Demo-genetic model of the development of resistance to

transgenic maize in European corn borer population - 41

2.1 The model - 41

2.1.1 Population genetics - 41

2.1.2 Modelling the demo-genetic dynamics of the population - 41

2.1.3 Modelling the “high dose-refuge” strategy - 43

2.1.4 Ecological simplifications in the demo-genetic model - 45

2.1.5 Estimation of demographic model parameters for the European corn

borer - 47

2.2 Qualitative analysis of the demo-genetic model - 49

2.2.1 Homogeneous pest habitat - 49

2.2.2 Heterogeneous pest habitat - 64

2.3 Simulation results - 92

2.3.1 Stability analysis of the homogeneous and heterogeneous spatial states

of the model - 93

5

2.3.2 Analysis of the efficiency of the “high dose-refuge” strategy for 1D and

2D habitats - 96

2.3.3 Calculation of profit when using the “high dose-refuge” strategy for 1D

habitat - 106

Discussion - 109

Chapter 3 Bi-trophic demo-genetic models - 115

3.1 Model “pest – parasitoid” - 115

3.1.1 The model - 115

3.1.2 Estimation of demographic model parameters for the larval parasitoid

Macrocentrus grandii - 117

3.1.3 Results of numerical simulations - 119

3.2 Model “crop – pest” - 122

3.2.1 The model - 122

3.2.2 Estimation of demographic model parameters for the maize - 124

3.2.3 Results of numerical simulations - 125

Discussion - 126

Conclusions - 128

Appendix - 129

References - 143

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